EP-078Causal IntelligenceCorrelation ≠ causation · uncertainty communicated · confidence capped

Causal Intelligence Engine™

Distinguishes correlation from plausible cause-and-effect where supported by evidence. Every edge names a mechanism, a lag, confounders, and evidence strength; correlation-only links are explicitly flagged. Alternative explanations are always considered and confidence is capped — the engine communicates uncertainty rather than overstating causation.

Nodes

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Causal edges

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Correlation-only

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Alternatives

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Ceiling

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Preset

Load a question

Question

What are we explaining?

Domain

Horizon (months): 12

Observations

Drivers

7 of 7 enabled

Economic Drivers — Rates, employment, wages, inflationInfrastructure Investments — Transit, utility, fiber capexPolicy Decisions — Zoning, tax, code, incentivesMarket Events — Trades, refinancings, closuresConstruction Activity — Permits, deliveries, pipelinePopulation Trends — Migration, cohort shiftsCapital Flows — Fund allocation, refi volume

Causal analysis

Run the engine to populate

AIR AI will build a typed causal graph, ordered chains, alternative explanations, leverage points, downstream impacts, and named uncertainties. Correlation-only links are explicitly flagged and no confidence exceeds 92%.