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Candidate
Genome
Candidate
1180 Northgate TOD
Transit-Oriented Development · Eastfield, WA
Success probability
81%
Confidence 100%
Expected IRR
13.9–17.4%
range across matches
Expected timeline
59 mo
avg of successful comps
Top comps
5
100% top match
Executive genome summary
What 1180 Northgate TOD resembles
Against the Transit-Oriented Development & Mixed Use genomes, 1180 Northgate TOD shows 81% weighted success probability across the top 5 historical comparables, with an expected IRR range of 13.9–17.4% and an expected timeline of 59 months.
Success drivers
Repeated across comparable winners
Rail adjacencyBy-right conversionStation-adjacent upzoningCouncil alignmentTransit connectivityPolitical will
Primary risks
Repeated obstacles across comps
Traffic mitigationSewer capacityConstruction cost inflationPolitical oppositionSewer capacity denialCapital fell through
Recommended actions
Highest-probability path forward
Secure municipal alignment early — winners in this genome share high municipal support scores.
Validate utility capacity before committing to the site plan; capacity denial is the leading failure mode.
Anchor the capital stack with the highest-conviction LP before non-refundable milestones.
Prediction
Snapshot
Success probability81%
Confidence100%
Expected IRR13.9–17.4%
Expected months59
Top match100%
Genome predictions are informational only. Similarity scores, expected IRR ranges, and success probabilities derive from historical comparisons and do not constitute investment advice. Confirm with your own underwriting.