EP-03814 strategy types10 upstream inputsExplainable · Measurable · Justified

Strategy Engine™

AIREx doesn't stop at identifying opportunities — it composes complete executable strategies with capital plans, milestones, risk matrices, and continuously updated evidence.

Mandate
Strategy
Mandate
Cascade Capital Partners
Eastfield, WA · balanced
Capital budget
$180M
Horizon 60 mo
Expected IRR
14.6%
Expected AIRScore
82
Post-execution
Success probability
78%
Confidence
81%
44 mo · $168M
Executive summary

Cascade Capital Partners · 1180 Northgate — 4.2 acre transit-adjacent parcel

Goal. Deploy $180M into a transit-oriented asset with ≥14% IRR over 5 years

Recommendation. Pursue Ground-up TOD (Recommended) (Redevelopment). Expected IRR 14.6% over 44 months at $168M capital, with a 78% weighted success probability and 81% engine confidence.

Why this wins

Primary drivers

Station adjacencyMunicipal alignmentGenome match ≥85%Sewer capacity confirmed
Tradeoffs

Acknowledged compromises

Higher construction spendLonger duration than acquisition playConcentration risk in one asset
Alternative approaches

Also modeled by the engine

  • • Phase as two 150-unit deliveries
  • • JV with regional operator
  • • Air-rights only + ground lease
Recommendation snapshot

Ground-up TOD (Recommended)

  • TypeRedevelopment
  • Capital$168M
  • Duration44 months
  • Expected IRR14.6%
  • Expected AIRScore82
  • Success probability78%
  • Confidence81%
Strategy recommendations are informational only. Expected IRR, AIRScore, and success probabilities derive from historical comparisons, current market conditions, and Organization-supplied constraints. All financial commitments require human approval, IC review, and independent underwriting.