Reality Engine™ · EP-014Reasoning · liveContinuous understanding, not retrieval

AIREx doesn't just answer questions. It builds understanding.

Facts, relationships, events, and time — reasoned across six modes (deductive · inductive · probabilistic · spatial · temporal · scenario) to produce recommendations, insights, warnings, and forecasts. Every conclusion is explainable.

Facts indexed

with provenance

Relationships

typed edges

Events

last 30 days

Contradictions

flagged for review

Model confidence

82%

stable

Executive briefing · auto-generated

82% confidenceReality Engine · just now

425 W 15th St — Redevelopment window opening

Key points

•Overlay lifts buildable envelope ~35% (92% confidence).
•Utility & fiber signals support data-center + mixed-use variants.
•P(transaction within 12 mo) ≈ 0.42 — reach out to owner within 30 days.

Risks

•Flood zone adjacency raises debt spread
•Missing structural capacity data

Recommended actions

•Pursue adaptive reuse + air-rights transfer
•Engage Ares as candidate lender

Facts

12 with source & confidence

Relationships

6 typed edges

425 W 15th StadjacentWest Chelsea Corridor

strength

conf 96%

Con Edison Sub #4supplies425 W 15th St

strength

conf 92%

NYC DCPregulatesWest Chelsea Corridor

strength

conf 99%

Related CompaniescompetesWest Chelsea Corridor

strength

conf 84%

Ares Debt Fund Vfinances425 W 15th St

strength

conf 74%

425 W 15th StdependsHudson Yards

strength

conf 70%

Events

temporal reasoning input

9d ago · conf 94%

NYC DCP adopted FAR overlay — West Chelsea Corridor

policyupzoningimpact +45

6d ago · conf 84%

425 W 15th St permit filed — Alt-1 change of use

signalowner-intentimpact +30

3d ago · conf 88%

Con Edison posted +4 MVA headroom — Sub #4

utilitycapacityimpact +22

1d ago · conf 90%

AIREx Signals detected comp trade — 512 W 22nd (+18%)

marketcompimpact +25

22h ago · conf 82%

IRS issued transferable credits guidance — solar+BESS

regulatoryimpact +18

Reasoning trace

six reasoning modes · fully explainable

deductiveconf 92%

Premise: M1-5 zoning + FAR overlay (+0.35) applies to 425 W 15th St.

Inference: Buildable envelope grows by ~35% subject to setback.

Evidence:

spatialconf 84%

Premise: Adjacent to West Chelsea Corridor within 0.25 mi of Hudson Yards.

Inference: Rent premium of 12–18% supported by comparable band.

Evidence:

inductiveconf 81%

Premise: Utility posted +4 MVA headroom and fiber confirmed.

Inference: Data-center adjacency and mixed-use viability improve.

Evidence:

probabilisticconf 74%

Premise: Ares dry powder + owner permit filing.

Inference: P(transaction within 12 mo) ≈ 0.42.

Evidence:

temporalconf 78%

Premise: Vacancy 19% and rising for legacy Class B office.

Inference: Adaptive reuse increases in value over 24 mo.

Evidence:

scenarioconf 71%

Premise: If FAR overlay ratified + BESS added, cap rate compresses 40 bps.

Inference: Est. value uplift $28–34M vs. base.

Evidence:

Insights, warnings, recommendations & forecasts

6 outputs

Warninghighscore 90 · conf 92% · 30d

Missing structural capacity data

Vertical expansion feasibility unverified. Order structural assessment before capital sizing.

Recommendationhighscore 71 · conf 86% · 12mo

Pursue adaptive reuse + air-rights transfer

Overlay + owner permit signals + comp trade support a mixed-use conversion with excess FAR sold to receiving sites in the corridor.

Backed by:

Forecasthighscore 56 · conf 74% · 24mo

Data-center demand within 5 miles grows 22% over 24 mo

Fiber + utility headroom + hyperscaler activity in NJ metro support edge-site absorption.

Backed by:

Warningmedscore 51 · conf 79% · 30d

Flood zone adjacency raises debt spread

AE-adjacent classification increases insurance and lender spreads; validate elevation certificate and freeboard design.

Backed by:

Recommendationmedscore 42 · conf 76% · 60d

Engage Ares as candidate lender

Ares dry powder profile and prior deals in corridor make them a fit for construction + mezz stack.

Backed by:

Insightmedscore 40 · conf 88%

Contradiction detected — power capacity

Utility posts 12 MVA; owner filing lists 8 MVA. Utility source is fresher and higher confidence.

Backed by:

Scenario generation

probability × outcome

Base — Adaptive ReuseP 48%

outcome+62

Convert to 220k sf residential over ground-floor retail. 24-mo timeline; est. IRR 16.4%.

Overlay ratified12 MVA availableFiber lease @ market

Bull — Air Rights + BESSP 24%

outcome+88

Sell excess FAR; combine with rooftop PV+BESS; premium residential above. Est. IRR 22–26%.

Overlay + TDR receiving pool assembledBESS interconnect approvedRate compression 40 bps

Bear — Overlay delayedP 20%

outcome-18

Hold as Class B office with light capex. Cashflow neutral; option value preserved.

Community Board oppositionOverlay slips 18 moRates stay elevated

Tail — Flood insurance repricingP 8%

outcome-52

Debt sizing constrained; equity check grows by ~$18M.

FEMA remaps expand AE zoneLender spread +90 bps

Contradictions

auto-detected across sources

medf3 ↔ f4

powerCapacityMva disagrees: 12 (Utility, conf 88) vs 8 (Filing, conf 62).

Missing data

known unknowns

Structural load capacity for +6 storieshigh

Recommended: Human

Sewer allocation lettermed

Recommended: Utility

Community Board sentimentmed

Recommended: Human

Reusable framework

POST /api/v1/reality-engine

import { REASONING_TRACE,
  INSIGHTS, SCENARIOS,
  executiveBriefing }
from "@/lib/reality-engine";

const brief = executiveBriefing();
// → { headline, bullets,
//     risks, actions,
//     confidence }

Reality Engine outputs are AI-generated inferences with attached evidence and confidence. Always confirm high-impact conclusions with authoritative underwriting before commercial decisions.